Spring Training and Fantasy Drafts (Part A)

Just a moment to share my personal opinion, based on some data I've used from previous seasons. Again, this is just my opinion--you're welcome to use it and try it, treasure it, discard it, hate it, whatever. It's my purpose to only give you food for thought.

So you're preparing to draft your 2015 fantasy baseball team. What do we need to look for when deciding who to draft? This is the first post in this series.

Point #1. Here is what we DON'T look at: Spring Training ("ST") stats. It's easy to fall victim to this trap. I've personally found that Spring Training has little to no bearing on how a player's season will go.

Sometimes, a player who does well in ST also does well in the regular season. Example: Madison Bumgarner, 2014. MadBum didn't allow a run the entire ST in 2014, and he went on to finish the 2014 regular season with a sub-3 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. That's good stuff, and someone you should consider drafting.

Sometimes, a player does awesome in ST and you think "this is finally the year they break out!"...... aaaand they flop. Example 1: Mike Moustakas, 2014. Moose hit over a .360 with 8 HR in ST. Regular season? Got sent down to AAA for several games, batted a .212 and scraped by with only 15 HR. Not hating on Moose, but we gotta call a spade a spade.

Then, there's also times where the player is a dud in ST, but a stud in regular season. Example: Clayton Kershaw, 2015. So far in this ST, Kershaw has allowed almost as many runs as he has inning pitched (I think he is over a 9 ERA, as of today). But will Kershaw finish the regular season with a 9-ERA? If you believe this, you need to quit fantasy baseball now. Because Kershaw is easily a top-5 pick in any fantasy format, if not THE top pick.

I use these examples merely to point out that these ST stats aren't to be relied on. Sometimes, players use ST to try new techniques, both batting and pitching. ST, for some, is used merely for getting players accustomed to playing every day. And some take ST seriously against the 18-year old pitching prospect that the manager wants to see if he can hang with the likes of Miguel Cabrera...and it doesn't work out.

So do not use Spring Training as a basis to formulate your opinion of a particular player. I'll come back later on another post and outline some of the things I look at in ranking players. Until then, enjoy the fact that baseball games are being played again!