Spring Training and Fantasy Baseball (Part B)

I previously wrote an article about how Spring Training performance shouldn't be taken into consideration when considering who to select for your Fantasy baseball team.

However, I think Spring Training should be paid attention to for one category.... health. Spring Training is often a time when players go down for some period of time, yet some shine. But watching players' health should be a good indicator to your selections.

ST is a good time to watch injuries; many times players are shaking off some offseason dust. Other times, they are discerning whether they are too old to the on the demands of the game. Sometimes, a player is coming off an injury from the previous season and is testing out their bodies for the first time. There are a variety of things the player's body can endure.

Keep a close eye on these situations:
   -  Players that had Tommy John surgery in the past 18 months: This is a big #1 on this list to watch! For more info on this particular type of surgery, see my post from last season. But many times, a player can come off the surgery and be just as dominant as before. Other times, they wish to get back into the game and end up needing the surgery again. Watch (a) how long it's been since the surgery (the shorter the time, the riskier the pick), and (b) the way the player shows consistency in his pitches,  his velocity in comparison to the last time he pitched, his mechanics, etc.
   -  Injuries that occur during ST to legs, arms, or shoulders: These are the biggest threats to a player's health/career, and are often the most impactful. Especially watch the diagnosis and the estimated time for return. Those times of return are typically shorter estimates than actual time. ST is a time of optimism, and the player is often ramped up and in a hurry to return. But those physicians rarely overshoot the time of return. You'll need to weigh how long the injury is with how early you want to spend a draft pick on that player.
   -  Injuries to other parts of the body, esp. back, abs, etc.: These are the least of concerns, to me. As long as the player waits until he is healthy to return, these injuries will rarely have an affect on player performance in the long-term. You always have cases like Johnny Cueto, however, with his oblique injuries in 2013.

This is all just my opinion based on my non-med school background--so take this with a grain of salt. As I stated, be sure to weigh your risk tolerance. Your draft picks are precious, and you don't want to waste a pick on someone who will not be giving you points for the better part of the season. Assess how valuable the player is, and estimate how late you're willing to wait before you decide this player needs to be on your squad. A good way to gauge this is to participate in free mock drafts. Just see what others are doing, and how they're gauging the same issues that you are.