If you've watched the movie Moneyball, and loved it as I have, you may have learned about the game from a new perspective. Billy Beane baseball is something that I was unaccustomed to, and it raised one of my eyebrows in learning his approach to winning games. I played ball ever since I could stand on my own two feet and could put a bat on my shoulders, and continued until I had to be practically carried off the field in college with a severe ankle injury, much like Jose Reyes'. I have been learning the game since I was sporting diapers, and thankfully, an injury has not slowed that train. Something that caught me the end of Moneyball has brought me a broader perspective to compare different styles of playing the game.
The theme of the entire movie is a battle of strategy and conceptualizations. It's about century-old strategy against statistical probability. History vs. Innovation. The Oakland A's have not made an appearance in the World Series since 1990. To be fair, the Kansas City Royals hadn't either since 1985... until this year (2014). The Oakland A's still employ the sort of statistical probability of working their way to winning games, while the Royals are masters at playing what we call "small ball," that is, bunting, stealing, sacrificing, etc. This is in contrast to the A's, where in Moneyball, Beane tells his players that they would no longer be stealing or bunting, as those bring a higher probability of outs.
So, it's not fair to compare the two teams and say that one style worked better than the other, based solely on historical data of the past 10-15 years. But there is one conclusion that I came to, based on their face-off in the 2014 Wild Card game: that small ball helped the Royals advance. There is no denying that the 7 stolen bases by the Royals put them in position to win...literally.
In the bottom of the 9th inning, Oakland had KC down 7-6. Not to disregard 8 important innings, but let's recap that half-inning:
KC's first batter, Willingham, singled to right. Royals substitute Jarrod Dyson to pinch run.
Next batter up: Alcides Escobar. A sacrifice bunt by Escobar places Dyson on 2nd, one out.
Dyson successfully steals 3rd base, still only one out.
Next batter, Nori Aoki, flies out to RF, allowing Dyson to score from 3rd. Now two outs, score 7-7.
Last batter: Lorenzo Cain lines out for the third out.
Arguably, Dyson wouldn't have scored, but for both the sacrifice bunt that moved him to second, as well as stealing third. None of those other at-bats would have sufficed to bring home the score. Thus, the Royals would have lost the game. At a minimum, it is easy to say that those small ball tactics put them into position to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Let's advance once more to the 12th and final inning of the game. Once again, the A's had the Royals down by one run after a single brought home Josh Reddick for an Oakland run. Bottom of the 12th, it's score-or-go-home once again for KC.
1st batter: Lorenzo Cain grounds out; one out.
2nd batter: Hosmer triples.
3rd batter: Christian Colon with an infield single to score Hosmer (who, in my opinion, is the fastest 1B in MLB). Tie game 8-8 with still only one out.
Next batter: Alex Gordon fouls out. 2 down.
Final batter: Salvador Perez to the plate.
Colon steals 2nd. Perez hits a single to LF, scoring Colon. KC walks off 9-8.
Note that I have underlined the key plays that set the Royals up. Only one of the 4 plays involves a typical run-of-the-mill, no special situational call on--that's the triple putting Hosmer on third and a Christian Colon single to score him. Other than that, the other 3 plays involve small ball: a sac bunt and two stolen bases to move the runner into scoring position.
I know it may only be speculative to analyze the situations that didn't happen, but it cannot be controverted that the Royals' small ball tactics scored the runs that took the game for them. Yes, there are multiple aspects to every baseball game including pitching, defense, base running, batting, etc. Sure, the other aspects helped to set up the scenario to win, but in the times that the game was on the line, small ball proved to crown the Royals.
Some of the last commentary at the end of Moneyball was a discussion that analyzed the A's shortcomings. It said that the Billy Beane tactics were great at bringing your team to the playoffs, but October baseball is a different picture. To win in October, you still have to bunt and steal in order to win. And these games have made it hard to disagree. (It's also how I grew up playing the game.)
Oakland did not steal a base or bunt until the 11th inning. In the top of the 11th, Fuld attempted a bunt single (not a sacrifice) that proved unsuccessful. There were no Oakland steals during the game, only advances on passed balls. The only attempted sacrifice was in the 12th inning that moved Josh Reddick to 2nd...and he eventually scored on a single by Alberto Callaspo after advancing to 3rd on a wild pitch.
In the end, it was the very tactics that the A's avoid that led to the end of their season. The Royals continue to play small ball, and have now found themselves in the 2014 World Series. Yes, the team who lacked a 15-win pitcher, who lacked a batter with 20 HR, who lacked a batter with 75 RBI--they are the ones who found themselves a League Champion.
This is the team that instead had 5 players that stole 10 or more bases (2 of whom had 30+ SB). Their highest OBP (with more than 250 plate appearances) was .351. They had one batter with more than 43 walks. Their pitcher with the highest number of games played (71) had exactly a 1.00 ERA (and another pitcher appearing in 70 games with a 1.41 ERA). They had 4 qualified fielders with over a .990 fielding percentage. I could go on, but you get the point. You see how this team does the small things well.
I would love to see this team, who plays the small things so well, go on to win it all. These next 2 weeks could potentially tell the story of how small ball won it all.
CR24
Monday, October 20, 2014
Monday, June 23, 2014
Reds Heating Up
The Cincinnati Reds struggled from the beginning of the season until June. This was perhaps attributed to many pieces being out of the lineup; Votto, Phillips, Latos, Hamilton, Chapman, and Bruce all spent time on the DL. Now that the team is back together again, what can they really do?
One of the biggest riddles in the MLB this season has been Johnny Cueto. Most knew that this ace was an "ace" for a reason. With an injury-plagued 2013, there was almost nowhere to go but up. Up through today, Cueto leads the MLB in ERA (1.86), yet his win/loss is only 7-5 through June (5-3 through May). Just a side note: I side somewhat with Brian Kenny in advocating that the "Win-Loss" statistic in baseball is a poor indicator of pitching performance. Cueto is a good example of that. I like the WHIP statistic--Cueto had somewhere around a 0.80 WHIP through May. He didn't allow many base runners or scores, so what's to attribute to his W/L?
Offense and run production. In May, the Reds were dead last in MLB in runs scored with 86. That was the entire month of May. True, the Reds only played 27 games, but if you're to allow that to excuse run production, compare to the Nationals (96 runs in 26 games played--10 more runs than Reds). This month, however, the Reds are 2nd in MLB runs scored for June with 102, and there's still a week of baseball left in June.
With a lack of run production comes skewed pitcher stats. That's a problem: rarely can pitchers contribute to the number of runs their team scores (or "run support"), thus affecting their W/L record.
Someone I'd keep my eye on: Mike Leake. Before June stat line: 3-4, 1.07 WHIP, 3.82 ERA in April, 2.16 ERA in May. June stats: 5.79 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, but... In his last 2 starts, 13 IP, 5 runs allowed, and 9 Ks. Both starts resulted in wins, with his last start being cushioned by 11 runs of support. Opp. Avg. in the last week is .143 with a 0.75 WHIP. I personally think he will post numbers closer to this past week for the next few months.
Leake may be more of an inconsistency story to date (understanding that 15 games is a small sample size), but as long as the Reds continue to score, those stats will improve. I'm talking about stats not only from a W/L perspective, but the moral and mental support for a pitcher that a lead of 8 runs can give. Of course Cueto has been among the best so far, but that should only continue with run support. Latos has only made 2 starts (0-0, 3.86 ERA, 1.2 WHIP). Alfredo Simon has been surprisingly good too (10-3, 305 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) and will likely continue that for some time.
With the Reds back together (even counting Votto, who isn't playing at 100%, but still continues to produce), I predict they'll give the Brewers a run for their money. Brewers lead the NL Central (47-30) with the Reds 8.5 back (37-37), and I predict that gap will close substantially by Aug. 1.
One of the biggest riddles in the MLB this season has been Johnny Cueto. Most knew that this ace was an "ace" for a reason. With an injury-plagued 2013, there was almost nowhere to go but up. Up through today, Cueto leads the MLB in ERA (1.86), yet his win/loss is only 7-5 through June (5-3 through May). Just a side note: I side somewhat with Brian Kenny in advocating that the "Win-Loss" statistic in baseball is a poor indicator of pitching performance. Cueto is a good example of that. I like the WHIP statistic--Cueto had somewhere around a 0.80 WHIP through May. He didn't allow many base runners or scores, so what's to attribute to his W/L?
Offense and run production. In May, the Reds were dead last in MLB in runs scored with 86. That was the entire month of May. True, the Reds only played 27 games, but if you're to allow that to excuse run production, compare to the Nationals (96 runs in 26 games played--10 more runs than Reds). This month, however, the Reds are 2nd in MLB runs scored for June with 102, and there's still a week of baseball left in June.
With a lack of run production comes skewed pitcher stats. That's a problem: rarely can pitchers contribute to the number of runs their team scores (or "run support"), thus affecting their W/L record.
Someone I'd keep my eye on: Mike Leake. Before June stat line: 3-4, 1.07 WHIP, 3.82 ERA in April, 2.16 ERA in May. June stats: 5.79 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, but... In his last 2 starts, 13 IP, 5 runs allowed, and 9 Ks. Both starts resulted in wins, with his last start being cushioned by 11 runs of support. Opp. Avg. in the last week is .143 with a 0.75 WHIP. I personally think he will post numbers closer to this past week for the next few months.
Leake may be more of an inconsistency story to date (understanding that 15 games is a small sample size), but as long as the Reds continue to score, those stats will improve. I'm talking about stats not only from a W/L perspective, but the moral and mental support for a pitcher that a lead of 8 runs can give. Of course Cueto has been among the best so far, but that should only continue with run support. Latos has only made 2 starts (0-0, 3.86 ERA, 1.2 WHIP). Alfredo Simon has been surprisingly good too (10-3, 305 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) and will likely continue that for some time.
With the Reds back together (even counting Votto, who isn't playing at 100%, but still continues to produce), I predict they'll give the Brewers a run for their money. Brewers lead the NL Central (47-30) with the Reds 8.5 back (37-37), and I predict that gap will close substantially by Aug. 1.
Monday, May 12, 2014
Tommy John-ers
The MLB has seen plenty of young stars head to the bench (and subsequently the O.R.) with Tommy John surgeries. To me, it has seemed like the operation has taken a special toll on the more prevalent names in the past two years.
This season (2014), so far, the TJ list has encompassed some bigger names, such as Patrick Corbin, Kris Medlen, Ivan Nova, Matt Moore, Jarrod Parker, AJ Griffin, and others. Additionally, some of the following players are scheduled to return later this season (or have returned) from TJ in 2013: Matt Harvey, Jaime Garcia, Gavin Floyd, Jason Motte, Chad Billingsley, and others. For a more comprehensive list, visit http://mlbreports.com/tj-surgery/ . Also noteworthy is that baseball nation holds their breath in anticipating the news of Jose Fernandez and whether he will require TJ as well.
What is being put in the water served to MLB pitchers?! The list above is so full of talent. The biggest travesty is this: undergoing TJ surgery typically removes a player from competing for around 12-18 months. That's about a season and a half of missing play. That's a season and a half of not recording strikeouts, wins, saves, etc., thus disadvantaging the player from record books and potentially Hall of Fame votes. Like the number of licks to get to the bottom of a Tootsie Pop, the world may never know.
Fantasy application: A theme to notice among these names on the TJ list--these are young guys, mostly. You don't see many seasoned veterans and the likes of your Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, David Price types. It does, however, make you suspect Felix, Kershaw, Sonny Gray, and other aces; I will certainly be watching them.
Thus, I suppose a key to finding success in your fantasy leagues is first and foremost finding a team/pitching staff that will stay healthy throughout the season. Easier said than done. At least until Baseball can figure out the cause of such an epidemic, perhaps the safer play is going with "older" pitchers: Wainwright, Greinke, Price, etc. It may not bring the most point per week average, but it will prevent you from scrambling trawling the leftovers in the free agency pool once a pitcher goes down for the season or trolling the other managers for a trade. That's just the safer, more conservative play, as opposed to adopting the high-risk high-reward model.
I'm anxious to see clubs find an understanding of the cause of these injuries, to adjust accordingly, and to foster the growth, well-being, and development of these young guns into the stars they can potentially become.
Until next time.
CR24
This season (2014), so far, the TJ list has encompassed some bigger names, such as Patrick Corbin, Kris Medlen, Ivan Nova, Matt Moore, Jarrod Parker, AJ Griffin, and others. Additionally, some of the following players are scheduled to return later this season (or have returned) from TJ in 2013: Matt Harvey, Jaime Garcia, Gavin Floyd, Jason Motte, Chad Billingsley, and others. For a more comprehensive list, visit http://mlbreports.com/tj-surgery/ . Also noteworthy is that baseball nation holds their breath in anticipating the news of Jose Fernandez and whether he will require TJ as well.
What is being put in the water served to MLB pitchers?! The list above is so full of talent. The biggest travesty is this: undergoing TJ surgery typically removes a player from competing for around 12-18 months. That's about a season and a half of missing play. That's a season and a half of not recording strikeouts, wins, saves, etc., thus disadvantaging the player from record books and potentially Hall of Fame votes. Like the number of licks to get to the bottom of a Tootsie Pop, the world may never know.
Fantasy application: A theme to notice among these names on the TJ list--these are young guys, mostly. You don't see many seasoned veterans and the likes of your Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, David Price types. It does, however, make you suspect Felix, Kershaw, Sonny Gray, and other aces; I will certainly be watching them.
Thus, I suppose a key to finding success in your fantasy leagues is first and foremost finding a team/pitching staff that will stay healthy throughout the season. Easier said than done. At least until Baseball can figure out the cause of such an epidemic, perhaps the safer play is going with "older" pitchers: Wainwright, Greinke, Price, etc. It may not bring the most point per week average, but it will prevent you from scrambling trawling the leftovers in the free agency pool once a pitcher goes down for the season or trolling the other managers for a trade. That's just the safer, more conservative play, as opposed to adopting the high-risk high-reward model.
I'm anxious to see clubs find an understanding of the cause of these injuries, to adjust accordingly, and to foster the growth, well-being, and development of these young guns into the stars they can potentially become.
Until next time.
CR24
Thursday, May 8, 2014
Dee Gordon's Steals
A prevalent question was posed at the end of April that has baseball nation talking: "Will Dee Gordon reach 100 steals on the season?" Although that sounds high, and perhaps absurd, one must stop and consider if Gordon will reach that milestone. If you're being honest with yourself, it is, at minimum, a viable possibility.
Nobody has stolen more than 78 bases in a season since 1990. That mark has been accomplished twice: Marquis Grissom in 1992 and Jose Reyes in 2007. To put things in perspective, the last two seasons have seen only one player swipe even 50 (Ellsbury - 52 in 2013). So to suggest that a player might reach roughly twice that amount makes this a difficult concept.
As of today, May 8, Gordon has stolen 20 in 35 games played by the Dodgers this season. 35 games is 21.6% of the season (or, mathematically, you could say the Dodgers will play 4.63 times that number of games this season). So, if Dee continues at that rate, you'd multiply 20 steals x 4.63, giving you a projection of 92.59 bases.
So, let's say Dee sits at the 92 mark at the end of game 162, meaning he didn't suffer an injury and the Dodgers did not designate him for assignment. I'm still impressed with 92. And if your mind works like mine, you're immediately having one name resonate in your head: Rickey Henderson. "The Man of Steal" was the last player to reach at least 90 SB: 93 in 1988.
But let's throw in some qualifiers now. Gordon has only played (or stepped on the field) in 32 of the Dodgers' 35 games. That means his projected number of games played would only reach 149. The Dodgers, early in the season, chose to occasionally start right-handed Justin Turner over the speedy southpaw. However, Mattingly could very possibly choose to keep Dee going against all pitchers, with an occasional day of rest. After all, Dee is currently tied for 4th in MLB for number of hits (44) and leads the MLB in steals with the next-closest competitor at only 12 bags. How can you not start Dee?! Gordon did not play on 3/22, 4/12, and 4/23. Additionally, Gordon saw limited playing time in the following games: 3/30, 4/5, 4/18, and 4/21.
So then, even assuming we rounded that projection up to 93 projected SB, we still should at least take into consideration a higher frequency of appearances. If it were me, I'd have Dee on the field every time the Dodgers were on the field. Since Gordon's last day of rest on 4/23, he has played every game and has gotten at least 4 at bats each game (and no fewer than 5 AB between 4/24 and 5/3, twice reaching 6 AB). His play time is increasing, and so are his SB numbers. He has stolen 8 bags in the month of May--yes, the same number of days as this month has held.
If you want to get crazy about his SB frequency in May compared to April, in order to use that as a projection, think about this: 8 out of his 20 SB have come in the past 8 games. But for the sake of conservative estimates as well as nerdy statistical and mathematical headaches, I will spare you from equations to take exponential increases into consideration. Because realistically, the 1:1 steal-to-game ratio is very unlikely to be sustainable over the course of the other 78.4% of games to be played. I digress...
Based on the increased frequency of Dee on the field, I'd say his SB projection shouldn't be anywhere south of at least 96. Heck, I'm giving him 102. Again, this all assumes good health throughout the season and decent enough production to keep him in The Show and on the field.
It's not entirely crazy...
Nobody has stolen more than 78 bases in a season since 1990. That mark has been accomplished twice: Marquis Grissom in 1992 and Jose Reyes in 2007. To put things in perspective, the last two seasons have seen only one player swipe even 50 (Ellsbury - 52 in 2013). So to suggest that a player might reach roughly twice that amount makes this a difficult concept.
As of today, May 8, Gordon has stolen 20 in 35 games played by the Dodgers this season. 35 games is 21.6% of the season (or, mathematically, you could say the Dodgers will play 4.63 times that number of games this season). So, if Dee continues at that rate, you'd multiply 20 steals x 4.63, giving you a projection of 92.59 bases.
So, let's say Dee sits at the 92 mark at the end of game 162, meaning he didn't suffer an injury and the Dodgers did not designate him for assignment. I'm still impressed with 92. And if your mind works like mine, you're immediately having one name resonate in your head: Rickey Henderson. "The Man of Steal" was the last player to reach at least 90 SB: 93 in 1988.
But let's throw in some qualifiers now. Gordon has only played (or stepped on the field) in 32 of the Dodgers' 35 games. That means his projected number of games played would only reach 149. The Dodgers, early in the season, chose to occasionally start right-handed Justin Turner over the speedy southpaw. However, Mattingly could very possibly choose to keep Dee going against all pitchers, with an occasional day of rest. After all, Dee is currently tied for 4th in MLB for number of hits (44) and leads the MLB in steals with the next-closest competitor at only 12 bags. How can you not start Dee?! Gordon did not play on 3/22, 4/12, and 4/23. Additionally, Gordon saw limited playing time in the following games: 3/30, 4/5, 4/18, and 4/21.
So then, even assuming we rounded that projection up to 93 projected SB, we still should at least take into consideration a higher frequency of appearances. If it were me, I'd have Dee on the field every time the Dodgers were on the field. Since Gordon's last day of rest on 4/23, he has played every game and has gotten at least 4 at bats each game (and no fewer than 5 AB between 4/24 and 5/3, twice reaching 6 AB). His play time is increasing, and so are his SB numbers. He has stolen 8 bags in the month of May--yes, the same number of days as this month has held.
If you want to get crazy about his SB frequency in May compared to April, in order to use that as a projection, think about this: 8 out of his 20 SB have come in the past 8 games. But for the sake of conservative estimates as well as nerdy statistical and mathematical headaches, I will spare you from equations to take exponential increases into consideration. Because realistically, the 1:1 steal-to-game ratio is very unlikely to be sustainable over the course of the other 78.4% of games to be played. I digress...
Based on the increased frequency of Dee on the field, I'd say his SB projection shouldn't be anywhere south of at least 96. Heck, I'm giving him 102. Again, this all assumes good health throughout the season and decent enough production to keep him in The Show and on the field.
It's not entirely crazy...
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Welcome to CR24 Baseball
Good evening, readers and followers!
I created this blog with the intent of sharing thoughts on baseball analysis and thoughts on developing and refining your fantasy baseball team. I'll also share stats of particular players and teams that catch my interest at times throughout the season.
I hope that you can benefit from what is shared here. Discussions are welcome and encouraged, as long as they are kept clean, courteous, and respectful. I reserve the right to control the content on my page and will do so upon my own determinations--though I hope I never have to.
Be well and best wishes.
CR24
I created this blog with the intent of sharing thoughts on baseball analysis and thoughts on developing and refining your fantasy baseball team. I'll also share stats of particular players and teams that catch my interest at times throughout the season.
I hope that you can benefit from what is shared here. Discussions are welcome and encouraged, as long as they are kept clean, courteous, and respectful. I reserve the right to control the content on my page and will do so upon my own determinations--though I hope I never have to.
Be well and best wishes.
CR24
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