Spring Training and Fantasy Baseball (Part B)

I previously wrote an article about how Spring Training performance shouldn't be taken into consideration when considering who to select for your Fantasy baseball team.

However, I think Spring Training should be paid attention to for one category.... health. Spring Training is often a time when players go down for some period of time, yet some shine. But watching players' health should be a good indicator to your selections.

ST is a good time to watch injuries; many times players are shaking off some offseason dust. Other times, they are discerning whether they are too old to the on the demands of the game. Sometimes, a player is coming off an injury from the previous season and is testing out their bodies for the first time. There are a variety of things the player's body can endure.

Keep a close eye on these situations:
   -  Players that had Tommy John surgery in the past 18 months: This is a big #1 on this list to watch! For more info on this particular type of surgery, see my post from last season. But many times, a player can come off the surgery and be just as dominant as before. Other times, they wish to get back into the game and end up needing the surgery again. Watch (a) how long it's been since the surgery (the shorter the time, the riskier the pick), and (b) the way the player shows consistency in his pitches,  his velocity in comparison to the last time he pitched, his mechanics, etc.
   -  Injuries that occur during ST to legs, arms, or shoulders: These are the biggest threats to a player's health/career, and are often the most impactful. Especially watch the diagnosis and the estimated time for return. Those times of return are typically shorter estimates than actual time. ST is a time of optimism, and the player is often ramped up and in a hurry to return. But those physicians rarely overshoot the time of return. You'll need to weigh how long the injury is with how early you want to spend a draft pick on that player.
   -  Injuries to other parts of the body, esp. back, abs, etc.: These are the least of concerns, to me. As long as the player waits until he is healthy to return, these injuries will rarely have an affect on player performance in the long-term. You always have cases like Johnny Cueto, however, with his oblique injuries in 2013.

This is all just my opinion based on my non-med school background--so take this with a grain of salt. As I stated, be sure to weigh your risk tolerance. Your draft picks are precious, and you don't want to waste a pick on someone who will not be giving you points for the better part of the season. Assess how valuable the player is, and estimate how late you're willing to wait before you decide this player needs to be on your squad. A good way to gauge this is to participate in free mock drafts. Just see what others are doing, and how they're gauging the same issues that you are.

Spring Training and Fantasy Drafts (Part A)

Just a moment to share my personal opinion, based on some data I've used from previous seasons. Again, this is just my opinion--you're welcome to use it and try it, treasure it, discard it, hate it, whatever. It's my purpose to only give you food for thought.

So you're preparing to draft your 2015 fantasy baseball team. What do we need to look for when deciding who to draft? This is the first post in this series.

Point #1. Here is what we DON'T look at: Spring Training ("ST") stats. It's easy to fall victim to this trap. I've personally found that Spring Training has little to no bearing on how a player's season will go.

Sometimes, a player who does well in ST also does well in the regular season. Example: Madison Bumgarner, 2014. MadBum didn't allow a run the entire ST in 2014, and he went on to finish the 2014 regular season with a sub-3 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. That's good stuff, and someone you should consider drafting.

Sometimes, a player does awesome in ST and you think "this is finally the year they break out!"...... aaaand they flop. Example 1: Mike Moustakas, 2014. Moose hit over a .360 with 8 HR in ST. Regular season? Got sent down to AAA for several games, batted a .212 and scraped by with only 15 HR. Not hating on Moose, but we gotta call a spade a spade.

Then, there's also times where the player is a dud in ST, but a stud in regular season. Example: Clayton Kershaw, 2015. So far in this ST, Kershaw has allowed almost as many runs as he has inning pitched (I think he is over a 9 ERA, as of today). But will Kershaw finish the regular season with a 9-ERA? If you believe this, you need to quit fantasy baseball now. Because Kershaw is easily a top-5 pick in any fantasy format, if not THE top pick.

I use these examples merely to point out that these ST stats aren't to be relied on. Sometimes, players use ST to try new techniques, both batting and pitching. ST, for some, is used merely for getting players accustomed to playing every day. And some take ST seriously against the 18-year old pitching prospect that the manager wants to see if he can hang with the likes of Miguel Cabrera...and it doesn't work out.

So do not use Spring Training as a basis to formulate your opinion of a particular player. I'll come back later on another post and outline some of the things I look at in ranking players. Until then, enjoy the fact that baseball games are being played again!