The MLB has seen plenty of young stars head to the bench (and subsequently the O.R.) with Tommy John surgeries. To me, it has seemed like the operation has taken a special toll on the more prevalent names in the past two years.
This season (2014), so far, the TJ list has encompassed some bigger names, such as Patrick Corbin, Kris Medlen, Ivan Nova, Matt Moore, Jarrod Parker, AJ Griffin, and others. Additionally, some of the following players are scheduled to return later this season (or have returned) from TJ in 2013: Matt Harvey, Jaime Garcia, Gavin Floyd, Jason Motte, Chad Billingsley, and others. For a more comprehensive list, visit http://mlbreports.com/tj-surgery/ . Also noteworthy is that baseball nation holds their breath in anticipating the news of Jose Fernandez and whether he will require TJ as well.
What is being put in the water served to MLB pitchers?! The list above is so full of talent. The biggest travesty is this: undergoing TJ surgery typically removes a player from competing for around 12-18 months. That's about a season and a half of missing play. That's a season and a half of not recording strikeouts, wins, saves, etc., thus disadvantaging the player from record books and potentially Hall of Fame votes. Like the number of licks to get to the bottom of a Tootsie Pop, the world may never know.
Fantasy application: A theme to notice among these names on the TJ list--these are young guys, mostly. You don't see many seasoned veterans and the likes of your Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, David Price types. It does, however, make you suspect Felix, Kershaw, Sonny Gray, and other aces; I will certainly be watching them.
Thus, I suppose a key to finding success in your fantasy leagues is first and foremost finding a team/pitching staff that will stay healthy throughout the season. Easier said than done. At least until Baseball can figure out the cause of such an epidemic, perhaps the safer play is going with "older" pitchers: Wainwright, Greinke, Price, etc. It may not bring the most point per week average, but it will prevent you from scrambling trawling the leftovers in the free agency pool once a pitcher goes down for the season or trolling the other managers for a trade. That's just the safer, more conservative play, as opposed to adopting the high-risk high-reward model.
I'm anxious to see clubs find an understanding of the cause of these injuries, to adjust accordingly, and to foster the growth, well-being, and development of these young guns into the stars they can potentially become.
Until next time.
CR24
CR24
Monday, May 12, 2014
Thursday, May 8, 2014
Dee Gordon's Steals
A prevalent question was posed at the end of April that has baseball nation talking: "Will Dee Gordon reach 100 steals on the season?" Although that sounds high, and perhaps absurd, one must stop and consider if Gordon will reach that milestone. If you're being honest with yourself, it is, at minimum, a viable possibility.
Nobody has stolen more than 78 bases in a season since 1990. That mark has been accomplished twice: Marquis Grissom in 1992 and Jose Reyes in 2007. To put things in perspective, the last two seasons have seen only one player swipe even 50 (Ellsbury - 52 in 2013). So to suggest that a player might reach roughly twice that amount makes this a difficult concept.
As of today, May 8, Gordon has stolen 20 in 35 games played by the Dodgers this season. 35 games is 21.6% of the season (or, mathematically, you could say the Dodgers will play 4.63 times that number of games this season). So, if Dee continues at that rate, you'd multiply 20 steals x 4.63, giving you a projection of 92.59 bases.
So, let's say Dee sits at the 92 mark at the end of game 162, meaning he didn't suffer an injury and the Dodgers did not designate him for assignment. I'm still impressed with 92. And if your mind works like mine, you're immediately having one name resonate in your head: Rickey Henderson. "The Man of Steal" was the last player to reach at least 90 SB: 93 in 1988.
But let's throw in some qualifiers now. Gordon has only played (or stepped on the field) in 32 of the Dodgers' 35 games. That means his projected number of games played would only reach 149. The Dodgers, early in the season, chose to occasionally start right-handed Justin Turner over the speedy southpaw. However, Mattingly could very possibly choose to keep Dee going against all pitchers, with an occasional day of rest. After all, Dee is currently tied for 4th in MLB for number of hits (44) and leads the MLB in steals with the next-closest competitor at only 12 bags. How can you not start Dee?! Gordon did not play on 3/22, 4/12, and 4/23. Additionally, Gordon saw limited playing time in the following games: 3/30, 4/5, 4/18, and 4/21.
So then, even assuming we rounded that projection up to 93 projected SB, we still should at least take into consideration a higher frequency of appearances. If it were me, I'd have Dee on the field every time the Dodgers were on the field. Since Gordon's last day of rest on 4/23, he has played every game and has gotten at least 4 at bats each game (and no fewer than 5 AB between 4/24 and 5/3, twice reaching 6 AB). His play time is increasing, and so are his SB numbers. He has stolen 8 bags in the month of May--yes, the same number of days as this month has held.
If you want to get crazy about his SB frequency in May compared to April, in order to use that as a projection, think about this: 8 out of his 20 SB have come in the past 8 games. But for the sake of conservative estimates as well as nerdy statistical and mathematical headaches, I will spare you from equations to take exponential increases into consideration. Because realistically, the 1:1 steal-to-game ratio is very unlikely to be sustainable over the course of the other 78.4% of games to be played. I digress...
Based on the increased frequency of Dee on the field, I'd say his SB projection shouldn't be anywhere south of at least 96. Heck, I'm giving him 102. Again, this all assumes good health throughout the season and decent enough production to keep him in The Show and on the field.
It's not entirely crazy...
Nobody has stolen more than 78 bases in a season since 1990. That mark has been accomplished twice: Marquis Grissom in 1992 and Jose Reyes in 2007. To put things in perspective, the last two seasons have seen only one player swipe even 50 (Ellsbury - 52 in 2013). So to suggest that a player might reach roughly twice that amount makes this a difficult concept.
As of today, May 8, Gordon has stolen 20 in 35 games played by the Dodgers this season. 35 games is 21.6% of the season (or, mathematically, you could say the Dodgers will play 4.63 times that number of games this season). So, if Dee continues at that rate, you'd multiply 20 steals x 4.63, giving you a projection of 92.59 bases.
So, let's say Dee sits at the 92 mark at the end of game 162, meaning he didn't suffer an injury and the Dodgers did not designate him for assignment. I'm still impressed with 92. And if your mind works like mine, you're immediately having one name resonate in your head: Rickey Henderson. "The Man of Steal" was the last player to reach at least 90 SB: 93 in 1988.
But let's throw in some qualifiers now. Gordon has only played (or stepped on the field) in 32 of the Dodgers' 35 games. That means his projected number of games played would only reach 149. The Dodgers, early in the season, chose to occasionally start right-handed Justin Turner over the speedy southpaw. However, Mattingly could very possibly choose to keep Dee going against all pitchers, with an occasional day of rest. After all, Dee is currently tied for 4th in MLB for number of hits (44) and leads the MLB in steals with the next-closest competitor at only 12 bags. How can you not start Dee?! Gordon did not play on 3/22, 4/12, and 4/23. Additionally, Gordon saw limited playing time in the following games: 3/30, 4/5, 4/18, and 4/21.
So then, even assuming we rounded that projection up to 93 projected SB, we still should at least take into consideration a higher frequency of appearances. If it were me, I'd have Dee on the field every time the Dodgers were on the field. Since Gordon's last day of rest on 4/23, he has played every game and has gotten at least 4 at bats each game (and no fewer than 5 AB between 4/24 and 5/3, twice reaching 6 AB). His play time is increasing, and so are his SB numbers. He has stolen 8 bags in the month of May--yes, the same number of days as this month has held.
If you want to get crazy about his SB frequency in May compared to April, in order to use that as a projection, think about this: 8 out of his 20 SB have come in the past 8 games. But for the sake of conservative estimates as well as nerdy statistical and mathematical headaches, I will spare you from equations to take exponential increases into consideration. Because realistically, the 1:1 steal-to-game ratio is very unlikely to be sustainable over the course of the other 78.4% of games to be played. I digress...
Based on the increased frequency of Dee on the field, I'd say his SB projection shouldn't be anywhere south of at least 96. Heck, I'm giving him 102. Again, this all assumes good health throughout the season and decent enough production to keep him in The Show and on the field.
It's not entirely crazy...
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Welcome to CR24 Baseball
Good evening, readers and followers!
I created this blog with the intent of sharing thoughts on baseball analysis and thoughts on developing and refining your fantasy baseball team. I'll also share stats of particular players and teams that catch my interest at times throughout the season.
I hope that you can benefit from what is shared here. Discussions are welcome and encouraged, as long as they are kept clean, courteous, and respectful. I reserve the right to control the content on my page and will do so upon my own determinations--though I hope I never have to.
Be well and best wishes.
CR24
I created this blog with the intent of sharing thoughts on baseball analysis and thoughts on developing and refining your fantasy baseball team. I'll also share stats of particular players and teams that catch my interest at times throughout the season.
I hope that you can benefit from what is shared here. Discussions are welcome and encouraged, as long as they are kept clean, courteous, and respectful. I reserve the right to control the content on my page and will do so upon my own determinations--though I hope I never have to.
Be well and best wishes.
CR24
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