Reds Heating Up

The Cincinnati Reds struggled from the beginning of the season until June. This was perhaps attributed to many pieces being out of the lineup; Votto, Phillips, Latos, Hamilton, Chapman, and Bruce all spent time on the DL. Now that the team is back together again, what can they really do?

One of the biggest riddles in the MLB this season has been Johnny Cueto. Most knew that this ace was an "ace" for a reason. With an injury-plagued 2013, there was almost nowhere to go but up. Up through today, Cueto leads the MLB in ERA (1.86), yet his win/loss is only 7-5 through June (5-3 through May). Just a side note: I side somewhat with Brian Kenny in advocating that the "Win-Loss" statistic in baseball is a poor indicator of pitching performance. Cueto is a good example of that. I like the WHIP statistic--Cueto had somewhere around a 0.80 WHIP through May. He didn't allow many base runners or scores, so what's to attribute to his W/L?

Offense and run production. In May, the Reds were dead last in MLB in runs scored with 86. That was the entire month of May. True, the Reds only played 27 games, but if you're to allow that to excuse run production, compare to the Nationals (96 runs in 26 games played--10 more runs than Reds). This month, however, the Reds are 2nd in MLB runs scored for June with 102, and there's still a week of baseball left in June.

With a lack of run production comes skewed pitcher stats. That's a problem: rarely can pitchers contribute to the number of runs their team scores (or "run support"), thus affecting their W/L record.

Someone I'd keep my eye on: Mike Leake. Before June stat line: 3-4, 1.07 WHIP,  3.82 ERA in April, 2.16 ERA in May. June stats: 5.79 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, but... In his last 2 starts, 13 IP, 5 runs allowed, and 9 Ks. Both starts resulted in wins, with his last start being cushioned by 11 runs of support. Opp. Avg. in the last week is .143 with a 0.75 WHIP. I personally think he will post numbers closer to this past week for the next few months.

Leake may be more of an inconsistency story to date (understanding that 15 games is a small sample size), but as long as the Reds continue to score, those stats will improve. I'm talking about stats not only from a W/L perspective, but the moral and mental support for a pitcher that a lead of 8 runs can give. Of course Cueto has been among the best so far, but that should only continue with run support. Latos has only made 2 starts (0-0, 3.86 ERA, 1.2 WHIP). Alfredo Simon has been surprisingly good too (10-3, 305 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) and will likely continue that for some time.

With the Reds back together (even counting Votto, who isn't playing at 100%, but still continues to produce), I predict they'll give the Brewers a run for their money. Brewers lead the NL Central (47-30) with the Reds 8.5 back (37-37), and I predict that gap will close substantially by Aug. 1.