A prevalent question was posed at the end of April that has baseball nation talking: "Will Dee Gordon reach 100 steals on the season?" Although that sounds high, and perhaps absurd, one must stop and consider if Gordon will reach that milestone. If you're being honest with yourself, it is, at minimum, a viable possibility.
Nobody has stolen more than 78 bases in a season since 1990. That mark has been accomplished twice: Marquis Grissom in 1992 and Jose Reyes in 2007. To put things in perspective, the last two seasons have seen only one player swipe even 50 (Ellsbury - 52 in 2013). So to suggest that a player might reach roughly twice that amount makes this a difficult concept.
As of today, May 8, Gordon has stolen 20 in 35 games played by the Dodgers this season. 35 games is 21.6% of the season (or, mathematically, you could say the Dodgers will play 4.63 times that number of games this season). So, if Dee continues at that rate, you'd multiply 20 steals x 4.63, giving you a projection of 92.59 bases.
So, let's say Dee sits at the 92 mark at the end of game 162, meaning he didn't suffer an injury and the Dodgers did not designate him for assignment. I'm still impressed with 92. And if your mind works like mine, you're immediately having one name resonate in your head: Rickey Henderson. "The Man of Steal" was the last player to reach at least 90 SB: 93 in 1988.
But let's throw in some qualifiers now. Gordon has only played (or stepped on the field) in 32 of the Dodgers' 35 games. That means his projected number of games played would only reach 149. The Dodgers, early in the season, chose to occasionally start right-handed Justin Turner over the speedy southpaw. However, Mattingly could very possibly choose to keep Dee going against all pitchers, with an occasional day of rest. After all, Dee is currently tied for 4th in MLB for number of hits (44) and leads the MLB in steals with the next-closest competitor at only 12 bags. How can you not start Dee?! Gordon did not play on 3/22, 4/12, and 4/23. Additionally, Gordon saw limited playing time in the following games: 3/30, 4/5, 4/18, and 4/21.
So then, even assuming we rounded that projection up to 93 projected SB, we still should at least take into consideration a higher frequency of appearances. If it were me, I'd have Dee on the field every time the Dodgers were on the field. Since Gordon's last day of rest on 4/23, he has played every game and has gotten at least 4 at bats each game (and no fewer than 5 AB between 4/24 and 5/3, twice reaching 6 AB). His play time is increasing, and so are his SB numbers. He has stolen 8 bags in the month of May--yes, the same number of days as this month has held.
If you want to get crazy about his SB frequency in May compared to April, in order to use that as a projection, think about this: 8 out of his 20 SB have come in the past 8 games. But for the sake of conservative estimates as well as nerdy statistical and mathematical headaches, I will spare you from equations to take exponential increases into consideration. Because realistically, the 1:1 steal-to-game ratio is very unlikely to be sustainable over the course of the other 78.4% of games to be played. I digress...
Based on the increased frequency of Dee on the field, I'd say his SB projection shouldn't be anywhere south of at least 96. Heck, I'm giving him 102. Again, this all assumes good health throughout the season and decent enough production to keep him in The Show and on the field.
It's not entirely crazy...
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